We are again at the time once more with our periodic collection looking at personal computer components market place traits, this time taking a glance at GPU gross sales for Q2 2016. Broadly speaking, unit gross sales of discrete desktop graphics cards are usually not sturdy in the 2nd quarter. This 12 months was not an exception, and shipments of movie cards just about strike a multi-12 months small immediately after dropping by all over 20.8% from the past quarter, in accordance to Jon Peddie Analysis (JPR). All through the quarter, AMD managed to a little bit boost its shipments and acquired market place share, whereas NVIDIA’s gross sales of desktop discrete GPUs were being down in conditions of units. Nevertheless, the latter continue to commands the lion’s share of the market place.
The Marketplace Is Shifting
Prior to we glance at the numbers for Q2 2016, we should really choose a shorter glance again to fully grasp what is taking place on the market place of discrete GPUs and why it is transforming nowadays the way it is transforming.
When integrated GPUs have been all over for the better element of a 10 years and a half now, it can be genuinely only in the past five yrs or so that they have been a first class citizen in the desktop market place. Built-in GPUs have generally eaten absent at discrete gross sales – the peak for discrete card gross sales was again in 1999 at 114M units – but it can be when they became handy for additional than basic texts and spreadsheets that they additional intensely impinged on the discrete market place.
The catalyst for this transform was when Intel integrated their GPU into their CPU alone in 2010 with Sandy Bridge. By going the GPU to a top-edge approach and by allocating ever-greater transistor budgets and die space to its many blocks, general performance of their iGPUs begun to raise fast. Right now, higher-conclusion Intel’s iGPUs can successfully contend from entry-amount discrete GPUs, seriously curtailing the sub-$one hundred discrete GPU market place and significantly shrinking complete out there market place (TAM) of standalone cards. For illustration, in 2006, the business sold about 84.sixty five million desktop discrete increase-in graphics boards. Having said that, unit gross sales of these types of factors in 2015 dropped to about forty four million units, in accordance to JPR.
Even while iGPUs might sooner or later substitute cost-effective movie cards, higher-conclusion discrete GPUs keep on to achieve horsepower every 12 months and their amount of general performance is miles ahead of iGPUs. Furthermore, the populace of players who will need highly developed graphics increase-in-boards (AIBs) to enjoy their beloved titles has grown. As a end result, when the TAM of standalone GPUs is shrinking, the need for higher-general performance graphics cards is growing the market place is (broadly) shifting in direction of a additional enthusiast-centric market place. In the modern yrs shipments of higher-conclusion desktop GPUs totaled all over two.8 – three million units for each 12 months (two.nine million in 2014), but in 2015 gross sales of these types of goods elevated to five.nine million units.
It is unattainable to convey to when unit gross sales of desktop discrete movie cards strike the bottom and need for higher-conclusion graphics cards peaks. There are continue to tens of millions of small-conclusion discrete desktop graphics cards sold every 12 months and it does not glance like they are going to disappear overnight. But specified the current traits, it is clear that builders of discrete GPUs are likely to devote additional in progress of mainstream and higher-conclusion processors and significantly less in generation of entry-amount chips.
Q2 2015: Fantastic for PCs, Not Undesirable for Discrete GPUs
In the 2nd quarter of 2016, the business sold among sixty two.4 million and 64.three million PCs, in accordance to IDC and Gartner respectively. In the meantime, discrete GPUs were being employed in 27.78% of PCs, promises JPR. Given that the latter does not disclose its overall Laptop numbers, we can only estimate that shipments of discrete GPUs (for desktops and notebooks) were being among 17.33 and 17.86 million units, based on the numbers from IDC and Gartner. Jon Peddie Analysis estimates that shipments of standalone GPUs in Q2 2016 were being down fourteen.19% from the past quarter, and reduced one.03% from Q2 2015.
When unit gross sales of PCs in standard were being down 12 months-around-12 months – among 4.five% and five.two% dependent on whose numbers you use – their shipments did not decrease from Q1 2016. According to Gartner, they remained on the very same amount and in accordance to IDC they basically elevated by just about two million units. Furthermore, JPR promises that unit gross sales of desktops were being up two.five% quarter-around-quarter (QoQ). But regardless of fairly sturdy need for desktops, shipments of discrete movie cards for these types of PCs declined by 20.8% quarter around quarter, but elevated by .8% 12 months-around-12 months, based on data from JPR.
|Desktop Discrete Graphics Cards Marketplace in Q2 2016
Data by Jon Peddie Analysis
Numbers are in percentage points or in tens of millions. Numbers are approximate.
|Q2 2016||Q1 2016||Q2 2015|
|AMD||29.nine%||two.eighty two||22.8%||two.717||eighteen%||one.sixty eight|
|NVIDIA||70%||six.six||seventy seven.two%||nine.two||81.nine%||7.sixty eight|
|Whole||one hundred%||nine.forty four||one hundred%||11.ninety two||one hundred%||nine.38|
Jon Peddie Analysis does not formally disclose how a lot of graphics adapters for desktop PCs were being sold in Q2 2016, but based on the company’s beforehand released numbers, we can estimate that many makers of AIBs sold about nine.forty four million movie cards, which is a little bit up from nine.38 million units in Q2 2015 (see notes underneath).
As pointed out previously mentioned, the 2nd quarter is seasonally not great for unit gross sales of desktop discrete GPUs. Having said that, it appears to be like like 2016 appears to be to be shaping up perfectly for AIBs in standard: unit gross sales of desktop movie cards in Q1 were being 11.ninety two million (up from 11.three million in the very same period of time a 12 months in the past) and in Q2 they totaled nine.forty four million units. If our estimates of JPR’s data are right, then shipments of desktop discrete GPUs in 1H 2016 elevated by about three% YoY to 21.36 million units (which means that AIB suppliers sold at the very least 650K additional graphics cards than in 1H 2015).
Marketplace Shares: AMD Is Regaining Floor Amid Flat Shipments
Historically, AMD commanded 35 – 40% of the discrete desktop GPU market place. Issues begun to switch south for AMD in Q3 2014 both in conditions of shipments and share. By Q2 2015, the company’s share dropped to eighteen% and unit gross sales of standalone GPUs for desktops declined to one.sixty nine million units. By contrast, NVIDIA was flourishing: its share elevated to as higher as eighty two% in Q2 2015, but considering the fact that the market place was shrinking its shipments did not expand very significantly.
To regain market place presence, AMD had to clear-out old inventory and address market markets with goods like the Radeon R9 Nano. The steps alongside with small foundation effect aided the corporation to reveal steady expansion of desktop GPU shipments around the earlier 12 months. Seasonality did not have an affect on AMD in Q2 2016 and the corporation managed to raise its shipments by ~one hundred thousand of units (if our estimates are right).
As opposed to its rival, NVIDIA was influenced by seasonality in the 2nd quarter, and possible anticipation of its Q2/Q3 product launches. Furthermore, the corporation determined to clear out some of the inventory of older product cards amid the start of Pascal-based GeForce 1070 and 1080 graphics cards, in accordance to JPR. This considerably influenced precise shipments and market place share of NVIDIA: unit gross sales reduced by fourteen% YoY and by 28% QoQ, whereas market place share declined to 70%.
AMD: Mining and Polaris Support to Travel Advancement
AMD sold about five.five million of desktop discrete GPUs in the first half of 2016, up from about 4.two million in the very same period of time a 12 months in the past. The company’s management states that the modern introduction of its Polaris-based Radeon RX 470 and 480 GPUs aided it to raise unit gross sales of graphics cards in the channel in Q2. Besides, revived curiosity for crypto forex mining applying GPUs also aided AMD to provide additional Radeon cards in the first half of the 12 months. Given that AMD would not split out its GPU revenues from the bigger economic final results of its Personal computer and Graphics Group, we are not able to say how significantly the corporation enhanced its economic final results by advertising additional chips/cards in the 2nd quarter.
“Our sturdy 2nd quarter graphics general performance was capped by the start of our new Polaris-based RX 480 GPUs at the conclusion of June, which aided contribute to our optimum desktop channel GPU shipments considering the fact that the fourth quarter of 2014,” said Lisa Su, chief government officer of AMD, throughout the meeting connect with with traders and economic analysts. “We also delivered our 3rd straight quarter of sequential skilled graphics earnings expansion and imagine we acquired share pushed by elevated adoption of FirePro graphics by OEMs as perfectly as quite a few cloud data middle GPU compute wins.”
Sturdy mainstream choices like the aforementioned Radeon RX 470/480 graphics cards could support AMD to further raise shipments of desktop AIBs in the coming months. The corporation admits that to further increase unit gross sales, it requirements additional chips from GlobalFoundries, but it assures that their yields are strengthening.
“We are very delighted with the start of the Radeon RX 480,” said Lisa Su. “We had great supply at major suppliers on start day. Given that then, the need has ongoing to be sturdy and so some of the suppliers are out of supply. We do see that the fourteen nm LPP yields are great and we are ramping up creation steeply.”
A great information for AMD is that unit gross sales of discrete desktop movie cards in the 2nd half of the 12 months are usually higher than in the first half. Therefore, if every thing goes perfectly and the corporation manages to capitalize on its Polaris architecture, it has probabilities to provide additional standalone desktop GPUs in 2016 than it did in 2015.
NVIDIA: Many thanks to Pascal, Gaming GPU Profits Approximately Sets All-Time Record
From a volume perspective, gross sales of NVIDIA’s standalone GPUs for desktops reduced in the first half of 2016 in standard (to ~15.81 million units, down 4% YoY) and in the 2nd quarter in specific (to ~six.sixty one million units, down fourteen% YoY and 22.two% QoQ). A massive drop of unit shipments brought about a normal drop of the company’s market place share.
Having said that, reduce unit gross sales do not generally translate into lousy economic final results. If we choose a glance at NVIDIA’s economic final results for Q2 FY2017 (begun on May perhaps two, ended on July 31, so it is not exactly calendar Q2), we will observe a eighteen% YoY and a 13% QoQ raise in the company’s gaming GPU earnings. When it is not exactly ideal to evaluate calendar Q2 with NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2017, even these types of comparison offers us an plan what took place in April – July period of time.
Given that need for discrete graphics adapters by mainstream customers in Q2 is not sturdy, the corporation determined to clear out its older inventory and not go after volume shipments, but concentration on ramping up new Pascal-based goods. This evidently price tag the corporation a good deal from the market place share position of watch, but to a selected degree, it stimulated need for higher-conclusion Pascal movie cards by players. Given that the new GeForce GTX cards command a sizeable price quality, NVIDIA obviously enhanced its earnings throughout the quarter.
Demand for NVIDIA’s most current movie cards was very higher and a lot of observers described shortages of the new AIBs. The corporation promises that yields of its GPUs manufactured applying TSMC’s 2nd-gen 16 nm FinFET approach know-how (CLN16FF+) are going to boost, which will evidently amplify its supply.
“16 nm FinFET is no trivial activity, not to point out the speed of the reminiscences that we employed,” said Jen-Hsun Huang, chief government officer of NVIDIA, throughout a meeting connect with with traders and economic analysts. “The quantity of technological issues that we overcame in the ramp of Pascal is fairly extraordinary. […] Now, going ahead, we are going to keep on to refine yields, and that is unquestionably the case. Having said that, we came into 16 nm with a fantastic deal of preparedness, and so it is much too early to guess what is going to transpire to yields and margins extended term, but we are going to guide a single quarter at a time.”
Even while Q2 2016 was not very great for NVIDIA from unit gross sales position of watch, the 2nd half of the 12 months is going to be better in standard. The corporation will try to capitalize on its extensive lineup of mainstream and higher-conclusion GPU choices based on its Pascal architecture. In truth, due to the start of two GeForce GTX 1060 SKUs in Q3, unit gross sales of Pascal-based goods will inevitably be higher this quarter compared to Q2. Having said that, it remains to be viewed irrespective of whether the corporation manages to sustain its yearly GPU unit gross sales at ~35 million this 12 months.
Even with fairly weak shipments of PCs in 2016, unit gross sales of discrete desktop graphics cards in the first half of this 12 months are basically higher that unit gross sales of these types of goods in the very same period of time a 12 months in the past. Declines of AMD Radeon gross sales feel to be around, but the corporation continue to has to do a good deal to re-seize lost share from NVIDIA. In Q2 AMD managed to provide about two.8 million of desktop AIBs and commanded 29.nine% of the market place. Having said that, with six.six million discrete desktop GPUs sold in the 2nd quarter and 70% share, NVIDIA remains the leader in this phase of the market place regardless of sizeable drop of its unit shipments.
Built-in graphics is slowly and gradually shrinking TAM of standalone GPUs. For now, gross sales of entry-amount graphics processors are continue to fairly respectable, but going ahead unit gross sales of these types of goods will keep on to drop. By contrast, gross sales of higher-conclusion desktop AIBs are on the rise, and past 12 months has viewed both AMD and NVIDIA reward from that. Fanatics are continue to a small element of the massive photograph, but as GPU charges and gross sales styles keep on to drift in direction of the higher conclusion, they are an more and more essential element of the photograph.
- Jon Peddie Analysis does not formally disclose precise unit gross sales of AMD, NVIDIA and Intel in its push releases. All unit gross sales released listed here are derived from market place shares of ideal vendors.
- Given that in a lot of cases JPR does not disclose quarterly TAM numbers, people numbers are derived from historic numbers released by the corporation.
- Some historic numbers were being re-stated by IHVs and JPR reflected these types of updates in subsequent stories and releases. As these types of, some numbers in our graphs might differ from publicly out there push releases.
- JPR did not launch any data about gross sales of desktop discrete graphics cards in Q1 – Q3 2010, but only disclosed shipments for This autumn and complete shipments for the 12 months, which is why the numbers in the charts for Q1, Q2 and Q3 are the very same.
- Provided the truth that unit gross sales and TAM figures are approximate, we advise to buy entire stories from Jon Peddie Analysis if you will need the data for decision-generating.